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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.